Carrying Capacity of U.S. agricultural land: Ten diet scenarios
Persistent URL
Author(s)
Peters, Christian J.
Picardy, Jamie
Wilkins, Jennifer L.
Griffin, Timothy S.
Fick, Gary W.
Darrouzet-Nardi, Amelia F.
Date Issued
July 22, 2016
Abstract
Strategies for environmental sustainability and global food security must account for dietary change. Using a biophysical simulation model we calculated human carrying capacity under ten diet scenarios. The scenarios included two reference diets based on actual consumption and eight “Healthy Diet” scenarios that complied with nutritional recommendations but varied in the level of meat content. We considered the U.S. agricultural land base and accounted for losses, processing conversions, livestock feed needs, suitability of land for crops or grazing, and land productivity. Annual per capita land requirements ranged from 0.13 to 1.08 ha person-1 year-1 across the ten diet scenarios. Carrying capacity varied from 402 to 807 million persons; 1.3 to 2.6 times the 2010 U.S. population. Carrying capacity was generally higher for scenarios with less meat and highest for the lacto-vegetarian diet. However, the carrying capacity of the vegan diet was lower than two of the healthy omnivore diet scenarios. Sensitivity analysis showed that carrying capacity estimates were highly influenced by starting assumptions about the proportion of cropland available for cultivated cropping. Population level dietary change can contribute substantially to meeting future food needs, though ongoing agricultural research and sustainable management practices are still needed to assure sufficient production levels.
Journal
Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene
Department
Global Health Studies
Citation
Peters, C., Picardy, J. Darrouzet-Nardi, A., Wilkins, J., Griffin, T., Fick, G. (2016). Carrying capacity of U.S. agricultural land: Ten diet scenarios. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene 4: doi:10.12952/journal.elementa.000116
Publisher
Elementa
Version of Article
Published article
DOI
10.12952/journal.elementa.000116
Rights
Open Access
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Darrouzet-Nardi_2016_Elementa_Ten Diet Scenarios.pdf
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