The effect of household debt on safety‐net participation
Persistent URL
Author(s)
Bianco, Timothy
Allegheny College
Moellman, Nicholas
Date Issued
January 18, 2026
Abstract
We examine how participation in the Food Stamp Program (FSP)/Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program responds to changes in state level household debt using administrative, quarterly data from 1999 to 2019. Using dynamic panel models, we find no consistently significant relationship. We argue this fails to capture the systemic structure of the safety-net and household finances. Using a panel vector autoregression to systemically model this relationship shows TANF is generally unresponsive to a one standard deviation shock to debt innovations, while FSP/SNAP participation responds significantly, substantially, and persistently, rising 10.99% cumulatively over 10 quarters.
Journal
Contemporary Economic Policy
Citation
Bianco, T. & Moellman, N. (2026) The effect of household debt on safety-net participation. Contemporary Economic Policy, 1–23. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.70023
Publisher
Wiley
Version of Article
Preprint
DOI
10.1111/coep.70023
ISSN
1074-3529
1465-7287
Type of Publication
Journal Article
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