The thermal mismatch hypothesis explains host susceptibility to an emerging infectious disease
Author(s)
Venesky, Matthew D.
Cohen, Jeremy M.
Civitello, David J.
Rohr, Jason R.
Sauer, Erin L.
McMahon, Taegan A.
Roznik, Elizabeth A.
Date Issued
February 2017
Abstract
Parasites typically have broader thermal limits than hosts, so large performance gaps between
pathogens and their cold- and warm-adapted hosts should occur at relatively warm and cold temperatures,
respectively. We tested this thermal mismatch hypothesis by quantifying the temperature-dependent
susceptibility of cold- and warm-adapted amphibian species to the fungal
pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) using laboratory experiments and field prevalence
estimates from 15 410 individuals in 598 populations. In both the laboratory and field, we found
that the greatest susceptibility of cold- and warm-adapted hosts occurred at relatively warm and
cool temperatures, respectively, providing support for the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Our results
suggest that as climate change shifts hosts away from their optimal temperatures, the probability
of increased host susceptibility to infectious disease might increase, but the effect will depend on
the host species and the direction of the climate shift. Our findings help explain the tremendous
variation in species responses to Bd across climates and spatial, temporal and species-level variation
in disease outbreaks associated with extreme weather events that are becoming more common
with climate change.
Journal
Ecology Letters
Department
Biology
Citation
Cohen, J., Venesky, M., Sauer, E., and et al. (2017). The thermal mismatch hypothesis explains host susceptibility to an emerging infectious disease. Ecology Letters 20: 184-193. doi:10.1111/ele.12720
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons
Version of Article
Published article
DOI
10.1111/ele.12720
ISSN
1461-023X
1461-0248
Rights
Published version is restricted by copyright. Please contact the author or publisher for access to this material.
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