From Tip to Take Off: The impact of team travel on Over/Under and Point Spread Betting in the NCAA Tournament
Persistent URL
Author(s)
Williams, Trey
Date Issued
April 25, 2025
Abstract
This study examines whether team travel variables including miles traveled and time zones crossed affect the betting lines of the point spread and over/under related to the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament. Multiple regression analyses were performed to test the relationship between these travel variables and the betting lines, using data from 327 games spanning the 2008-20012 NCAA tournaments. Despite previous research on travel negatively affecting team performance, this study found little to no statistical evidence of a correlation between travel variables and betting lines. In terms of miles traveled there was no statistical evidence found within any of the regression models. While time zones crossed only had one model show weak statistical significance, for the variable total time zones crossed compared to total score. Determining that for each additional time zone traveled the total score would decrease by 2.99 points. Therefore with lack of statistical evidence found for inefficiencies, the efficient market hypothesis proves that the betting market fully accounts for the deficits of travel when creating point spread and over/under lines. In turn refuting the initial research question: Does analyzing travel find inefficiencies in the NCAA Tournament betting lines?
Major
Business
First Reader(s)
Nonnenmacher, Tomas W.
Other Reader(s)
Waugh, Jill
Ormiston, Russell
Department
Business and Economics
Type of Publication
Senior Project Paper
File(s)![Thumbnail Image]()
Name
Trey Williams Senior-Project-2024-25.docx.pdf
Size
613.57 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
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