The impact of state- versus county-level mask mandates on economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic

Seegert, Nathan; Gaulin, Maclean; Chaiyakunapruk, Nathorn; Navarro-Sanchez, Francisco; Nguyen, Danielle; Yang, Mu-Jeung; Nelson, Richard E.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0332243

The impact of state- versus county-level mask mandates on economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic

Persistent URL

https://dspace.allegheny.edu/handle/10456/63971

Author(s)

Seegert, Nathan

Gaulin, Maclean

Chaiyakunapruk, Nathorn

Navarro-Sanchez, Francisco

Allegheny College

Nguyen, Danielle

Yang, Mu-Jeung

Nelson, Richard E.

Date Issued

September 3, 2026

Abstract

Background During the COVID-19 pandemic, policy makers used mask mandates as a tool to signal that, due to the amount of virus circulating at the time, social behaviors might be risky. Because of the geographically specific nature of disease transmission information, these signals would be more informative in smaller geographic units. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of policy information revelation by quantifying the impact of state versus county mask mandates on economic activity. Methods We constructed a longitudinal dataset of US counties from April to September 2020 including the period immediately surrounding a COVID-19 mask mandate policy. In our primary analysis, we used a regression discontinuity approach with economic activity measured as county-level cell phone mobility and credit card spending. Results We found that state mask mandates were associated with an increase in economic activity (coefficient = 1.045, 95% CI: 0.44,1.65) and spending per person (coefficient = $143, 95% CI: $102, $185). On the other hand, we found no statistically significant effects following county mask mandates. Conclusion Using variation in the level of government enacting a policy, we find that mobility and spending are higher after a US state mask mandate than a county mandate, consistent with information revelation.

Journal

PLOS One

Citation

Seegert N, Gaulin M, Chaiyakunapruk N, Navarro-Sanchez F, Nguyen D, et al. (2026) The impact of state- versus county-level mask mandates on economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. PLOS ONE 21(9): e0332243. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0332243

Publisher

Public Library of Science (PLoS)

DOI

10.1371/journal.pone.0332243

ISSN

1932-6203

Rights

This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.

Type of Publication

Journal Article

File(s)

Name

2026_NavarroSanchez_Impact.pdf

Size

1.34 MB

Format

Adobe PDF

Checksum (MD5)

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